Andy Schectman Get the Facts Stewardship Begins With You Own Precious Metals

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The sentiment picture is even less encouraging today. With gold down another $15 since that late-June column, we’d otherwise expect the average recommended gold exposure level to be even lower than minus 13%. That’s because the normal pattern is for market timers to become more- and less bullish along with the market’s rallies and declines. That the average market timer did not behave in this way suggests there is a strong undercurrent of stubbornly held bullishness in the gold market.

That’s not the sentiment foundation on which strong rallies typically are built.

To be sure, sentiment is not the only factor impacting the markets. And even when contrarian analysis’ forecast is accurate, it applies primarily to the shorter term rather than the longer term. So gold’s discouraging sentiment picture does not by any means translate into a guarantee that gold’s near-term direction is down — or that gold a year from now couldn’t be higher.

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